ECB to lower Interest Rates
Tuesday, March 3rd, 2009Turning to the ECB, it also has some remaining room for manoeuvre on the interest rate front. We expect a 0.50% cut from the ECB which would take rates in the eurozone down to a new all-time low for the ECB of 1.50%.
However, the ECB, too, is now close to the end of the line as far as using the standard interest rate tool, with a number of prominent officials last week suggesting that 1% would be the “lowest limit” for the ECB.
To convince the ECB that more stimulus is necessary, the incoming news will need to suggest that the economy is even weaker than the poor outlook captured by the latest forecasts.
But, interestingly, some forward-looking economic indicators have begun to creep higher, including the expectations index of the Ifo index of German business confidence. This suggests the ECB might be quite cautious about providing more policy stimulus.
But in the event that the ECB does decide at some point that further monetary policy stimulus is needed over and above that which can be provided by using the remaining room for manoeuvre on interest rates, the question remains - what is the ECB’s preferred method of providing that stimulus?